Some interesting perspectives among the usual hyperbole:

http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/07/08/0139245

Like:

Let's not get stupid here. Software piracy alone is probably more rampant than mp3s and movies. If you're a shareware developer looking to make a living, forget it. Shareware is dead. Freeloaders just aren't willing to follow a valid system of try before you buy--they just want the whole thing for free. Morality and ethics are gone in a new era of hax0r kiddies who hang out in IRC all day and never even dream of heading to a software store to buy something.

Still sounds like so much hyperbole to me.

The truth lies between the extremes of opinion, I think:

#1 - YES, the freeloaders and hard-core thieves are almost NEVER going to pay for anything. Don't target them as your market. There's very little that can be done to convert these people into honest, paying customers.

#2 - But on the other hand, we CAN and SHOULD be doing things to keep the above subset of the software-using community SMALL and on their guard. Enforcement of antipiracy laws *needs* to be a priority. Not for the sake of the Microsofts and Sonys of the world... but for the sake of the little guys barely scratching out a living in software development. I hate the way the RIAA has managed things, but the truth is - enforcement is a major deterrant. Lack of enforcement makes the laws a joke.

Trusted Computing, Peer-To-Peer Distribution,
and the Economics of Pirated Entertainment(PDF) (http://www.eecs.harvard.edu/~stuart/papers/eis03.pdf)

This article takes an interesting look at piracy from an economic point of view. Digital piracy is so strong because the cost(time, money, etc) to make copies is so low.

I think they reached a very interesting conclusion --- that Trusted Computing might actually make piracy WORSE by making P2P sharing safer for pirates. I'm personally opposed to Trusted Computing initiatives ANYWAY, so I found that very interesting.

Ultimately, I think the "solution" (not that there will ever be a perfect solution) to piracy is a combination of the carrot and the stick. Incentivize legitimacy, and be better about enforcing the law.

I heard an interesting anecdote a few months ago from a coworker. He worked customer support at a major software company. They were struggling with doing customer support for people whom they could TELL didn't have a legal copy of the software. After trying to deal with this in many ways, the company hit on a policy that worked 'best.' I can't recall all the details, but basically they got all these illegitimate users signed up on a customer list, and sent them the same 'upgrade' offer they sent their legitimate customers.

The end result is that a large percentage of the users of stolen versions of the software went ahead and paid for the upgrade and a chance to become legitimate. Whamo! Instant customers. Kinda like shareware, huh?

I don't think this gives an excuse for slacking in our enforcement of data piracy laws. I think that might have been a motivator for some of these people to accept the opportunity to "go legit." After all - sure, you could SUE Sally for the retail price of the stolen software that she didn't pay you for on her machine. You take her $100, and she's unlikely to use illegitimate software again. But she's also got less-than-happy thoughts about you, too, and she may end up spending thousands of dollars in the future on your competitor's products. Who ends up winning in that scenario?

I sort of compare the software piracy trade to the drug trade.

It's not the users and the dealers you have to crack down on, it's the suppliers.

That is one of the major reasons that the music industry is having such a bad time dealing with MP3 users. They are trying to target the users a lot more than they are targeting the suppliers.

Who's the supplier in a P2P network when people are sharing mp3s? Almost anyone can rip a music cd nowdays. And I think a lot of people first learn how to use a browser, and shortly thereafter they're up and chatting on DirectConnect or some other file-sharing service.